Debunking the 1% Myth is an article written by by Caitlyn martin and published by the publisher O'Reilly in 2010 and in which precisely the author sets out the reasons why she considers that it is not true that the Linux on desktop systems it is only 1%.
Dismantling the myth of the 1%
by Caitlyn Martin, 2009
It seems almost every day someone from the technical press, or commenting on a forum, assures that the adoption of Linux in the desktop market (including laptops) is insignificant. The resulting number is around 1%. These claims have been echoed by some advocates for Linux adoption. Both ideas, that the Linux market is insignificant, and that of the 1%, are simply false, and have been for many years.
Linux's market share is not tiny. Linux and UNIX have had a majority share of the server industry for more than a decade. Linux is very competitive on embedded devices. It has also made great strides in the consumer and business markets, including laptops, notebooks, and netbooks.
Let's start with netbooks, the area where Linux has made the biggest entries. According to ABI Research, Linux accounted for 32% of the netbook market in 2009, despite being almost impossible to find in accessory stores. This number does not include systems sold with dual boot, in which Windows is considered the default operating system.
Dell has reported that about a third of its netbook sales in 2009 were systems with Ubuntu pre-installed. Recent reports that there was no more demand for Linux on netbooks, and that Dell had dismissed Linux, were proven false. in fact, Dell currently offers Ubuntu laptops and desktops, in addition to the Inspiron Mini 10n.
What significance do the netbook numbers have in global sales terms relative to desktop and laptop? According to Forrester Research, netbooks were 18% of total desktop / laptop sales last year. If we do the math, we will see that just for netbooks, Linux captured about 6% of the market in 2009. To reach a total number, we will have to add large laptops and desktops from companies like Dell, HP (their line of business), as well as small retailers.
Further confirmation of the growth of Linux in the market came from an unexpected source: Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. Using a slide to show the OS market, Ballmer showed the Linux slice slightly larger than MacOS. Nobody considers Apple insignificant, and neither is Linux. Here is, in part, what Mr. Ballmer had to say about Linux on the desktop and the competition for Windows:
"Linux and Apple, as you can see from the slide, have certainly increased their share."
(...)
“I think that depending on how you look at it, Apple has probably increased its market share last year, by a point or more. One point of market share in a number that is over 300 million is interesting. It's an interesting market share, even if it's not as dramatic as people think, but we're very focused on both Apple and Linux as competitors. "
Could anyone believe that Microsoft would see Linux as a serious competitor, if it only reached 1% of the market? It doesn't seem very real, doesn't it? All the figures I have mentioned so far represent sales of systems pre-installed with a given system, be it Windows, Mac or Linux. They do not represent actual use. If you go to the store, buy a Windows system, sweep the hard drive, and install Linux, it still counts as a Windows system, not Linux, for statistics.
Where did the 1% come from then? There are two sources, very old data, and web counters. The problem with using web counters to test and certify market share is that they generally only include websites that have paid to be counted. That guarantees that Windows will be overcounted. Ars technica recently demonstrated just how dramatic error is possible in an article on browser market shares. They found that IE had over 60%, Firefox just under 23%, and Chrome over 8%. The Ars technica site percentages were completely different, with Firefox at 38%, Chrome at 22%, and IE a distant fourth at 16.63%. The reason for this discrepancy is obvious: Ars tecnica tends to have more technical readers, who are more aware of IE's security issues, and tend to use Linux or MacOS. Similarly, most Linux technical sites do not pay to be counted by web counting companies, throwing the numbers out of balance in favor of Windows.
So what is the real market share of Linux on desktops? The best estimate of current sales is around 8%, which puts Linux right behind, or tied with, MacOS. This 8% translates to 24 million systems per year sold with Linux pre-installed. Windows represents at least 80% of the market, and is a de facto monopoly. However, there has been a sustained erosion of that monopoly status.
If we talk about actual usage, there is no way to get a precise idea. A measured guess work will probably put Linux around 10%, even with MacOS. It's a far jump to 1%, and by no means insignificant.
Excellent article, although I would love to know how the statistics are right now in 2012 hehe 😀
Although Dell sells computers with Linux, how many of them are still using Linux? And the same thing happens the other way around (with mine came Windows Vista, I installed Linux, I changed Vista for XP and for almost 2 years only Linux)
It is impossible to know for sure how many Linux, Windows, Mac, etc. users there are in the world, and I only mean computers (other things are mobile phones or super computers)
A, it happened to me.
I can't enter HumanOS, I don't know if it will be because it detects that I'm connecting from Spain
I'm just like you
Unfortunately HumanOS is only available on the Cuban national intranet 🙁
It is an internal site of Cuba, they do not let them go to the internet 🙁
U.S (DesdeLinux) we are more than willing to help them, give them hosting so that they can be seen in the rest of the world, if they want they know how to contact us 🙂
I was about to ask the same thing, from Belgium you can't either. Now we know why 🙁
Yes that's true, but someone who chooses to buy a Dell with Linux pre-installed is far more likely to keep it as their operating system.
And in this you are right, but for those the figures are for sales of equipment with that OS pre-installed
It was clear that 1% was false. If these figures are made by a market you need to keep up with your sales and methods. Beyond these questions, I clearly see that we are a generation with a conscience and that our children, in this specific case, will lead GNU / Linux to a jump of 20 or 30% of the market, and then become the most used. The question is whether physical technology as we know it will continue to be used ... but the GNU philosophy and its copyleft will endure in some programmers or engineers forever simply because it is a natural philosophy.
When we think about life, and not just our life, we will stop patenting things and ideas.
How well I finally have reliable evidence to deny the much mythologized 1%, if it can be said higher, but not clearer.
In my house there are 3 computers that came with Windows and they have had Linux for about 2 ~ 3 years. The same thing happens in the house of some friends of mine to whom I have had the pleasure of installing Linux.
It was very clear that this 1% was false, I had always seen it very manipulated although I had not stopped to think why, after reading this article I have everything much clearer, thank you! 😀
PS: Linux will keep going up that percentage, I'm sure of it.
Thanks for sharing the text. The web counters do not give reliable data but it is not pleasant to see those percentages.
If we have 8% of the market, then why do we still have the ati XD ASI shits drivers !!!? Come on…, at most I believe between 2 and 4.
8% of sales in the year of the article. According to Caitlyn Martin he had 10% of the market (pure guesswork).
I don't think he has that much either, if a lot he will have 5, at most. And that would also be strange to me, since when you go down the street you should see someone using Linux from time to time and that never happens (in my case, which is not relevant). What I do see in these parts of the world is a lot of OSX, a lot.
In any case, with 10% I would be more than satisfied, with that is enough to have decent drivers 🙂
I also sometimes think that there are more of us, then when I talk to other people or at university, almost nobody uses Linux, I fall into reality.
Sometimes many say they use Linux when in reality they have only virtualized it 🙁
This 1% interests me little and nothing. You have to let everything flow like water with linux com today is. In any case, I have always believed that one percent is more false and blackmailing than The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
interesting ^. ^