Why is the number of GNU / Linux distributions declining?

Interesting article that they have published in datamation.com on the cause for which GNU / Linux distributions they have been declining in quantity, using as data the statistics offered by Distrowatch.

Why has the number of GNU / Linux distributions decreased?

Let's see what they tell us in the article I linked previously (in English), in this modest Spanish translation:

Number Linux distributions is in decline. In 2011,, the database de Linux distributions Distrowatch assets reached a maximum of 323. Today, but neverthelessare listed only 285. However, exactly why of slope that is carrying out and how much matters, not clear.

Distros They have always come and gone. In fact, Distrowatch list 791 distributions that have existed since it was founded in 2001. , although less than forty per cent You are never ha developing state asset at one point. These counts may not be complete, since some distributions probably never are registered in Distrowatch.

But until about 2011, number active distributions increase slow by each year, but only a few. Instead, the last three years has occurred just one decrease of 12% - a decrease too high that can lend itself to be a coincidence. So what is happening?

Part of the reason for this decrease, es than Linux every time es less a hobby and much more one business strategy. When fans can frolic, the commercial they are more concerned with the results - specifically in decreasing time to market and reduce costs developmental. With these worries, the are less likely to experience For the love of experiment, and more likely to prints its development in a concern existent.

Maybe also, supporters Linux they are getting old, y, Like the companies, do less time for your hobbies and fairer concern with immediate results. However, statistics about such a diverse group make this posibilidad something impossible to confirm.

Another reason for decrease it may be that the innovation center ha changed in the last years from the distributions for the desk. Although most of the distributions have un default desktop, most of the most important offer at least half a dozen deskyes, many of the that promote different Work habits en the users.

Except for the wallpaper and the themes, Generally is easier on these days know at a glance which desk these using and which one distribution is using. Due to the trend almost universal towards package installation in a print shop, you can't even know easily what system of package management is using.

The odds are, However technology you are using is de Debian. At least part of the decrease in distributions can to be that the technology of Debian dominate, and there is already derivatives Debian for all use that users can conceive easily. This idea is supported by the fact that, while the number de distributions It has decreased, the number based Debian or on more popular derived, Ubuntu, has gone from 63% of number total of distributions in 2011. to 70%.

Number derived from Debian has decreased in this moment, with a loss of four based distributions on Debian, y seven in Ubuntu. However, these figures are equivalent to 1,5% of losses, one eighth of the general decline in the distros. This descent es so small that can represent a bump statistical more than a trend. At least, debian-derivatives They are disappearing slower than any other distribution.

Whichever is the reason for the decrease in the distros, It seems as if border is starting to close. Some might say that decrease hardly matters. After all, 285 distributions is a figure that even users more avid don't wait test in their life unless that they do not dedicate their lives for something more.

Some might say also that Many of the distributions consist of so small y so personal that few people will realize his lost. Bliss loss could included be an advantage, Ya que the number of distributions means more contribute to laI know they survive.

Es likely to find it easier to developers for Linux if they have a smaller number of distributions. However, in spite of the disappearance of some distributions promising as fuduntu, few of those who have desaparecido could be considered very important. How to Live Aligned with the distros minors have disappeared in recent three years, the top ten among the most viewed in DistroWatch they've changed little except for up or down a position or two.

However, even yes most of losses he been minors, the trend is worrying. Defenders Linux They have always appreciated the diversity, and the loss of even a little bit of diversity seems matter of concern, even if is beneficial in some aspects. If nothing else, the tendency suggests that Linux is deviating from its roots, and maybe every time they are except the adventurers.

The trend is uncertain. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on her, just in case.

My personal opinion

In some points I share the criterion of Bruce byfield in that article. I think that Linux for many began as an entertainment, a hobby, something that was worth trying just for fun, and that little by little has become something more serious. As I have been learning things myself, I have noticed that using GNU / Linux sometimes becomes boring. I've said it before, sometimes it makes me too stable.

Many companies have seen the use of GNU / Linux (and Open Source in general) as an excellent tool for a good business model and have focused on collaborating or putting money to improve it. Canonical, which began by launching a distribution for the desktop, has realized that it is not profitable by itself and has created (or is trying to create) an entire ecosystem that goes from the phone and the PC, to the cloud, because it is precisely there In the end, where your product has value, in services.

I support diversity and choice, but if it were up to me, 100 more distributions could die. In the end, there are only a few that really bring innovation, or its derivatives and those are the ones that should last forever. The same happens with desktop environments, 20 more can emerge, which in the end are used, maintained and renewed, the ones that have been around the longest, the most reliable.

Anyway, whether or not distributions are in decline, we should not worry because GNU / Linux is here to stay. It can evolve, it can improve (or worsen), but it will always exist as an alternative. And if it is not Linux (like Kernel), something else will appear sooner or later.